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OPINION (Published in Iran Daily News, Aug. 5, 2004, p2)
Mr. Sistani's initiative to bring Najaf back to normality was well planned, well timed and well executed. He cleverly avoided the heat of the firefight between the occupying forces and Sadr followers by making a timely trip abroad for health reasons. He not only guaranteed his own health by this move, but Najaf's as well. If he had stayed in Najaf during the fighting, he would have had to take sides. Neither side had anything to offer but liability. Considering the violent nature of Sadr's uprising, Sistani's own life could also have been in danger.
The Americans must have realized by now that politics in Iraq is a complicated cobweb of foreign interests, and very little of it is home grown. Iran, Israel, Syria, Turkey, Egypt and Saudi Arabia, not counting U.S., U.K., and even France and Germany, all have a say, some invisibly. Arab Countries, Israel and Turkey fear Shiite control of the country, so they would do anything in their power to discredit this Iraqi majority in the eyes of the powerful occupiers. They are also suspect for supporting Shiite radical groups. If it hadn't been for Mr. Sistani's clever planning, Shiites could've lost all chances of having their proportional say in the future of Iraq.
Official Iran, on the other hand, wishes the law-abiding moderation side of the Iraqi Shiites be displayed for want of helping them take their rightful place in the country's political life. However, there are radical groups in Iran too who think moderation in Shiite politics in Iraq is not their cup to tea.
Mr. Sistani turned the political tide that was going against the political and civil rights of the Shiite majority in Iraq. Mr. Sadr's violent uprising, kidnappings and undemocratic demands displayed a negative picture of what could one expect when the majority Shiite population is given their right of one man one vote. Mr. Sistani was not about to let what happened to Shiite political rights after World War I and the independence of Iraq, happen again. At that time, poor leadership and ill advice caused bloody uprisings aimed for control of Mesopotamia, which were brutally put down by the British conquerors of this Ottoman territory. As the result, the Sunni minority was trusted with governing of the newly formed Iraq. Shiites were pushed into the background for their display of radicalism. Later, Saddam Hussein made sure of their complete silence and non-participation through his violent and brutal tyranny and monopoly of power. This time, Mr. Sistani was not about to let the history repeat itself. He designed a clever plan for derailing Sadr extremism and executed it perfectly. If and when peace and stability comes to Iraq, the people of Iraq should forever be indebted to Sistani's wisdom.
I, however, don't see peace and stability in Iraq for a long time to come. There are many Sadr-type radicalisms lurking around the corner waiting for opportunities to express themselves… violently. Religious splinter groups will fight for a stronger position in Iraq politics. Nostalgic remnants of Baath party operatives and Saddam Hussein supporters will continue to cause problems and keep the pot boiling as long as he is alive. You can bet that some evil-thinking neighbors also see their national interest in keeping this potentially powerful neighbor sitting on razor's edge. Continued violence and instability will drive orderly Kurds to vie for independence in order to distance themselves from religious infightings. This will alarm Turkey, Syria and Iran, of course. There will be a lot of cross fire, not with bullets I hope. Then, with some assistance from Turkey, Iran and Syria, violence and instability may return to the Kurdish area as well. The other unthinkable alternative will be for Turkey to try to occupy northern Iraq, and Iran, hopefully, will move to stop them.
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Now, however, Iraq is on path again, as temporary as it may be. Shiite community is calm and orderly again, and hopefully will stay so, at least through the upcoming general assembly elections. The Sunni triangle will also be forced to behave. And this is the only way one can expect that the occupying forces of the coalition will finally withdraw to the background.
